2017 Travers Stakes Predictions Contenders Live Longshot

2017 TRAVERS STAKES PREDICTIONSWelcome to the thralls of summer horse racing and The Spa. Saratoga has arguably its biggest day of the year this Saturday with six Grade 1’s including the Travers Stakes, also known as the Mid-Summer Derby. Below is a simple breakdown of each horse that is slated to enter the starting gate this Saturday. What you will see is not a complete stat sheet for each horse since you can get that from Daily Racing Form or Equibase. Instead they are my 2017 Travers Stakes predictions summed up to help each of you make a decision when you walk to the window, the machine or click a mouse to make a wager on the 2017 Travers Stakes.

 

Race: Travers Stakes (G1)

Location: Saratoga Race Course

Distance: Mile and a quarter

Surface: Dirt

Purse: $1,250,000

Date: Saturday, August 26 2017

Age: Three-year-olds

Post Time: 5:44 PM EST

(2016 Travers Courtesy of New York Racing Association Inc)

The Backstory – Over the years I have continued to modify how I break down each race based on input from the readers (Thank for your reading and leaving feedback over the years). That could be from any number of sites I have created content for including Sports Unbiased. However, when I started Longshot Horse Racing, I wanted to apply all I heard and get away from very granular and in-depth analysis of each horse in the field. Many claimed the reading was dry and over the top. Now you will find data about each horse, how it should shake out, and we will have a little fun doing it. If you want just the raw numbers then Brisnet, Equibase, or even the Daily Racing Form are right up your alley (and mine since I love them all) but if you want the breakdown with a twist then read on and enjoy.

2017 Travers Stakes Predictions Contenders Live Longshot– Post Positions and Odds

PPM/LHorse
18-1Cloud Computing
220-1Giuseppe the Great
34-1West Coast
47-2Tapwrit
55-1Good Samaritan
610-1Girvin
76-1Always Dreaming
830-1Lookin At Lee
912-1McCraken
108-1Irap
1120-1Gunnevera
1230-1Fayeq

racehorse contender art

2017 Travers Stakes Predictions Contenders Live Longshot Contenders Analysis

red saddle cloth post 1CLOUD COMPUTING – The obvious point made up front. It is hard to mess with Chad Brown at The Spa. Heck he is basically from there. That aside, you have CC coming into this race off what could be described as a dud stretch run in the Jim Dandy. He surprised in the Preakness (although I had him) and very lightly raced. You could argue he needed the Jim Dandy since he was off since his Preakness score. Castellano as a jockey is happy with him and has won the Travers five times. At his best, he can win this race.

 

white saddle cloth post 2GIUSEPPE THE GREAT – You can argue him from both sides. I can tell you that the second place finish in the Jim Dandy was more a product of other giving up and him clunking by than anything else. But you can also say he has only missed the board once and that was a fourth in the Dwyer. Out of Lookin At Lucky so that is a plus and Zito swears by his talent. I am just not a believer. Now I would add him to your stable for next year.

 

blue saddle cloth post 3WEST COAST – Holy crap, is this Arrogate V2? I am sure the bettors will be on board because they still have what Baffert did with Arrogate last year on the brain. Proponents will point to his recent two Stakes scores as proof that he not only belongs but will take down this field. I will offer this counter instead. If you watch the Easy Goer again it was a pace meltdown. Look at the backstretch and West Coast was sixth with You’re To Blame second last. Why mention this? Because even with margin of victory the gap of the two that finished 1-2 was in essence the same. YTB just finished off the board in the Curlin. The Los Alamitos Derby was clearly a much lesser group. Can he win this? Sure. Will there be the value the bet deserves? Doubt it.

 

yellow saddle cloth post 4TAPWRIT – Making his first start since winning the Belmont Stakes in June. Clearly the classis distance of the Travers will be of little to no concern. He is the slight favorite but he has not raced in two months. No prep is a concern but I am not going to speculate any more than he needed the rest. Still he avoided the first two Triple Crown series winners in the Belmont and his last win was the G2 Tampa Bay Derby. He has the ability to score but at a short price he will be off my radar.

 

green saddle cloth post 5GOOD SAMARITAN – Only run over the dirt once but it was an impressive close in the Jim Dandy over Cloud Computing and Always Dreaming. So you can clearly check the block that he is fine with the surface at The Spa. Bettors will love the score over two classic winners in that last but was a product of both of these needing the race after layoff or Good Samaritan coming into his own. The bettors might send him off as the post time favorite around 2-1. Not sure I want this price but I am impressed with his last and if he repeats that he might just score.

 

black saddle cloth post 6GIRVIN – It has been no secret that I have a love affair with this horse. I talked about him all winter and pegged him to be my Kentucky Derby favorite before he suffered an injury that might have cost him that race. He retuned after layoff to finish a photo second to Irap in the Ohio Derby after stalking lead and he probably needed that race. Returned for a big score in the Haskell with an impressive closing stretch to nose out McCraken. Now it is third off time and he could be sitting on an even bigger one here.

 

orange saddle cloth post 7ALWAYS DREAMING – Many have hopped off the bandwagon and boarded other trains either at the Preakness or the Jim Dandy. But this is not a Mine The Bird flute Kentucky Derby winner. He also scored in the Forida Derby previously and came into the Triple Crown series as a co-favorite. The downside here is he is now 0-2 at the Spa but they were not complete duds. If you still believe then consider that there is not a ton of pace in this instance of the Travers. He might get to set fractions that are manageable and they will all have to come and get him in the stretch. I am still a believer especially given the expected pace scenario. What will his price be though? That is my major concern.

 

violet saddle cloth post 8LOOKIN AT LEE – I am not going to spend a lot of time here. I am sure some will jump on me but I am going to stay consistent. He is just no good enough. He is a good and not great horse that has never won a Graded Stakes. He can pass tiring horse and will find a way to hit the board on occasion. He is destined for allowance and named stakes wins with the occasional Grade 3 score. He might mature over the winter but right now he is just not good enough. Now watch him finally burn me:)

 

teal saddle cloth post 9MCCRAKEN – He has not brought home that huge win that stamps him as the top three-year-old but he has been arguably the most consistent without the damaging unexplainable clunking defeat. This year he brings wins in the  Grade 3 Matt Winn and the G3 Sam F Davis with a nose loss to Girvin in the Grade 1 Haskell. If he moved a little later he might have flipped the result on the winner. His eighth in the Kentucky Derby can be excused without much trepidation. He always seems to being it but “it” tends to be just below. 10 furlongs might be a bridge slightly too far but that is not proven yet. You will get a square price in the post if you believe he is ready and all systems appear a go.

 

dark purple saddle cloth post 10IRAP – In Spring he appeared to be rounding into proper form with a big score in the Blue Grass but then he laid a complete and utter dud in the Kentucky Derby. For me I can throw the race because some horses cannot handle a field of 20 and it was not a race course in good condition that day. He just did not like it. He has strung two impressive scored together in a row in the Indiana and Ohio Derbies. Back with the top tier he needs to retain form, no step up is needed. He took down solid fields in his last. The Spa has gotten to horses in the past but he appears ready and you should fetch a solid price.

 

grey saddle cloth post 11GUNNEVERA – Many will say that his seventh and fifth in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness are proof that this stage is too much for him. I disagree. I am in a camp (which appears to be pretty vacant) that you have to look at the body of work and how it unfolded. Look he never carries a ton of weight and there was a grind for him from the Florida Derby through the first two Triple Crown legs. Prior to that, the Fountain of Youth win was overly impressive. That race was second off a minor freshening break. Now he came back after the same break and scored impressively in the Tangelo Stakes. I know that is not a marquee races but he closed at a shorter distance into slow fraction and did it under a hand ride the whole way through a four wide move to win with absolute ease. This will be his second off the minor freshening break and he has won a Graded Stakes at the Spa in the past so track is not issue. He IS the live longshot in this race. This just feels a lot like 2013 and Will Take Charge.

 

lime green saddle cloth post 12FAYEQ – Enter the half-brother of the great Rachel Alexandria who is attempting a HUGE step up from his Allowance score last out. The plus is that win was here at The Spa. Since moving from Florida to New York he has been better but there is not much know about his full ability yet. His bloodlines are solid and the trainer knows how to score here so those are plus points. I want to fall in love with him but I just can’t. There are too many here that appear better. When the step up is this big I just cannot justify it. Buy hey I would not argue with you if you wanted to throw five dollars to win on a flyer.

2017 Travers Stakes Predictions Contenders Live Longshot – Wise Guy Price Horse

(11) GUNNEVERA

 

2017 Travers Stakes Predictions Contenders Live Longshot – Betting Strategy

As I have eluded to in this piece, I am looking for value in a race that could easily be all chalk. How will it all shake out? It is almost impossible to tell but based on the data I provided in the contenders analysis and the preceding paragraphs, I present some logical betting options based on your favorite cup of tea or betting style. How do you bet a horse race?? What type of bankroll are you playing with? Is it about having a good time and being a part of the spectacle? Or is it about finding a way to make money? No matter what you want or the size of your bankroll there are different ways you can approach 2017 Travers Stakes predictions and betting strategies.

 

Travers Stakes $12 investment
$1 Exacta Box6 with 7 with 11
$1 Trifecta Box6 with 7 with 11
Travers Stakes $20 investment
$1 Exacta Box6 with 7 with 11
$1 Trifecta Box6 with 7 with 11
$4 Win / Place11
Travers Stakes $30 investment
$1 Exacta Box6 with 7 with 10 with 11
$.50 Trifecta Box6 with 7 with 10 with 11
$3 Win / Place11
Travers Stakes $50 investment 1
$1 Exacta Box6 with 7 with 10 with 11
$1 Trifecta 6 with 7,9,10,11
$1 Trifecta 7,9,10,11 with 6 with 7,9,10,11
$.10 Superfecta Box6 with 7 with 9 with 10 with 11
$2 W11
Or
Travers Stakes $50 investment 2
$1 Exacta Box6 with 7 with 10 with 11
$1 Trifecta Box6 with 7 with 10 with 11
$7 WP11

There you have our 2017 Travers Stakes predictions. Do you agree or are there other 2017 Travers Stakes predictions that we did not include? Here at Longshot Horse Racing we are all for readers commenting but can we make a suggestion? Why don’t you write your own piece? It can be 3000 words or even 300.  Here we encourage different opinions and want to give you a chance to build your brand. Join us and let your voice be heard. Just check out the Write With Us link to get started. Don’t worry its easy and remember you can build you brand by writing with us and not for us. That is the big difference. It is all about you in your words.

 

2017 TVG Pacific Classic Predictions, Contenders, Live Longshot

2017 TVG PACIFIC CLASSIC PREDICTIONSWelcome to the thralls of summer horse racing and Del Mar, one of the most incredible views in all of racing. Del Mar has a few premier races this summer and one of them is upon us in the Grade 1 TVG Pacific Classic. Below is a simple breakdown of each horse that is slated to enter the starting gate this Saturday. What you will see is not a complete stat sheet for each horse since you can get that from Daily Racing Form or Equibase. Instead they are my 2017 TVG Pacific Classic predictions summed up to help each of you make a decision when you walk to the window, the machine or click a mouse to make a wager on the 2017 Pacific Classic.

 

Race: Pacific Classic (G1)

Location: Del Mar

Distance: Mile and a quarter

Surface: Dirt

Purse: $1,000,000

Date: Saturday, August 19 2017

Post Time: 5:45 PM PST

The Backstory – Over the years I have continued to modify how I break down each race based on input from the readers (Thank for your reading and leaving feedback over the years). That could be from any number of sites I have created content for including Sports Unbiased. However, when I started Longshot Horse Racing, I wanted to apply all I heard and get away from very granular and in-depth analysis of each horse in the field. Many claimed the reading was dry and over the top. Now you will find data about each horse, how it should shake out, and we will have a little fun doing it. If you want just the raw numbers then Brisnet, Equibase, or even the Daily Racing Form are right up your alley (and mine since I love them all) but if you want the breakdown with a twist then read on and enjoy.

2017 TVG Pacific Classic Predictions – Post Positions and Odds

PPM/LHorse
130-1Royal Albert Hall
25-2Collected
33-1Accelerate
430-1Sorry Erik
520-1Hard Aces
615-1Donworth
720-1Curlin Road
81-1Arrogate

racehorse contender art

2017 TVG Pacific Classic Predictions – Contenders Analysis

red saddle cloth post 1ROYAL ALBERT HALL – What’s not to like here? Oh wait, almost everything. Started out over the pond racing five times with one score. Shipped to the US and added one win in 21 more starts. Not stakes scores when running only on turf (I.E. every start) but did look decent a couple of times. Claimed off a fourth in last start, a claiming race. New connections must be all seeing oracles stepping him into the Pacific Classic against these for a first ever try on dirt. Nakatani draws the mount and he has won this race before so there is that going for him. He is a closer but that will not matter.

 

white saddle cloth post 2COLLECTED – Here lies to real probably challenger to Arrogate that is not named the Del Mar surface. Collected has scored in his last three. All after a long rest from the uber clunker thrown in the 2016 Preakness. Those three scores are by over 20 lengths. His last run was a 14-length score where his 125 Speed Figure puts him number two. Baffert must have real confidence to line him up next to stablemate Arrogate. This is a huge race above the purse. His effort here at the extra quarter mile will determine if he runs in the BC Classic or the BC Mile. A real shot to win in this group.

 

blue saddle cloth post 3ACCELERATE – He helps with the muddy vision that came come from handicapping this race. Hit the board in 11-of-12 starts lifetime and is now the pride owner of the highest Speed Figure of all in this race after his 8+ length score in the San Diego Handicap. That would be the same race where Arrogate fired a blank at 1-20 odds. But he also was comfortably dismantled by Collected in the Precisionist Stakes Here are the interesting parts to the conversation. Is he a new horse with two changed variables during the San Diego Handicap? First, he added Espinoza for the first time and second was the addition of blinkers. That combo could have led to the field best Speed Figure. But we will not know for sure and all the magic eight ball is saying currently is there is a chance.

 

yellow saddle cloth post 4SORRY ERIK – Sorry Desormeaux brothers, it is hard to fathom a way where he steps up here and triumphs against this group. This is one heck of a top-three and any would be 1-2 at Post Time if it wasn’t for the fact that all three are here. But speaking of fathoms and trying to look for an angle or two that might pay,  Desormeaux has been smart about where to place his horses and has pulled off some rather significant scores in the past. While very unlikely that he can pull it off he is the classic three-year-old with upside who was on the Triple Crown tail to start the year. He is also racing with a six-pound advantage. Unlikely…yes…impossible…honestly no. He would have to be the live longshot in a race devoid of a real in.

 

green saddle cloth post 5HARD ACES – So inexperienced to be put in against these. Just kidding, with over 40 career starts this seven-year-old has traveled this road before. He is a money earner if not a winner against Grade 1 competition with only the 2015 Gold Cup to his credit but over 50 percent in the money is big. Coming in off a mile and half race in the Cougar II Handicap so distance has never been a concern. It is the kick that matters and past trips to the Pacific Classic have not ended in large success. I personally love him but it is hard to find a way. I would not be surprised if he is scratched before the race.

 

black saddle cloth post 6DONWORTH – A stakes winner in 2015, yep I had to go to 2015 to give you the highlight, he has been winless since then. His last start, the San Diego Handicap saw him finish a distant second to Accelerate in the race that Arrogate laid an egg. He will need to sit just off and hope for a meltdown but with the class of the top-three that is almost impossible. I like Gutierrez but there has been no scenario that I can construct that puts him on top in this race.

 

orange saddle cloth post 7CURLIN ROAD – Okay so I will get to it from the beginning here. Double-digit races to break his maiden. Got up at the nose to win the Cougar II last out over Hard Aces. Four year old that had three solid allowance and optional claiming runs since the claim but this is a whole different animal. A new class and a new tactic to say the least. I give hard Aces almost no chance so since Curlin Road nosed him then he gets slightly more. Let’s say .04 percent chance to win.

 

violet saddle cloth post 8ARROGATE – I would love to sit here and say it was that Arrogate had never experienced Del Mar surface and it was not to his liking but that is out the window since he had an almost two length score over eight and a half furlongs at Del Mar last year. It could be that his almost four month layoff created a race when he did not fire. That is more plausible since he is always on and that break was almost double the longest between race break he had experienced since his beginnings. If that truly was the case that Candy Ride’s Pacific Classic record time could be in jeopardy this Saturday. Given his past record and that he is the biggest money earner in North American horse racing history (no small part due to the Pegasus World Cup) I can forgive even the great Arrogate a dud. He just did not fire and did not look interested. Betting him is a whole different animal. Multi-race wagers he is a must but in a single race bet scenario I have to try and beat him or it is not worth the wager.

2017 TVG Pacific Classic Predictions – Live Longshot

(4) SORRY ERIK

 

2017 TVG Pacific Classic Predictions – Betting Strategy

As I have eluded to in this piece, I am looking for value in a race that could easily be all chalk. How will it all shake out? It is almost impossible to tell but based on the data I provided in the contenders analysis and the preceding paragraphs, I present some logical betting options based on your favorite cup of tea or betting style. How do you bet a horse race?? What type of bankroll are you playing with? Is it about having a good time and being a part of the spectacle? Or is it about finding a way to make money? No matter what you want or the size of your bankroll there are different ways you can approach 2017 TVG Pacific Classic predictions and betting strategies.

 

$12 investment
$1 Exacta Box2 with 3 with 4
$3 WP4
$20 investment
$1 Exacta Box2 with 3 with 4
$1 Trifecta 2,4 with 2,3,4,8
$4 Win / Place4
Note:Might be a better day to go multi-race wagers

There you have our 2017 TVG Pacific Classic predictions. Do you agree or are there other 2017 TVG Pacific Classic predictions that we did not include? Here at Longshot Horse Racing we are all for readers commenting but can we make a suggestion? Why don’t you write your own piece? It can be 3000 words or even 300.  Here we encourage different opinions and want to give you a chance to build your brand. Join us and let your voice be heard. Just check out the Write With Us link to get started. Don’t worry its easy and remember you can build you brand by writing with us and not for us. That is the big difference. It is all about you in your words.