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2016 Cotillion Stakes Predictions, Picks, Live Longshot, Analysis

lhr-horse-racing-picksThe 2016 Cotillion Stakes at PARX will be the 50th edition of the Grade 1 race and it can be argued that is the clash of the three-year-old female titans. The Cotillion shares top billing on the biggest day of the PARX schedule with the Grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby. This is arguably the final major stop before the Breeders’ Cup World Championships. PARX is a unique track that has seen its share of entries ship in and just not like the surface. What will happen this year?

Race: Cotillion Stakes (G1)

Location: PARX

Distance: Mile and a sixteenth

Surface: Dirt

Purse: $1,000,000

Age: 3 Year Olds

Date: Saturday, September 24 2016

Post Time: 4:55 PM EST

The Backstory – Over the years I have continued to modify how I break down each race based on input from the readers (Thank for your reading and leaving feedback regardless of the site). Years ago I provided very granular and in-depth analysis of each horse in the field.  However, as many claimed the reading was dry and over the top as such I began the change. Here at Longshot Horse Racing, these articles will provide you with data about each horse, how it should shake out, and we will have a little fun doing it.

If you want just the raw numbers then Brisnet, Equibase, or even the Daily Racing Form are right up your alley (and mine since I love them all) but if you want the breakdown with a twist then read on and enjoy. The track record is solid since I tend to stick with the big races each year. You will not find a breakdown of a claiming race next Sunday but if you want the major preps, Triple Crown series, Travers, and more than this is the place for you. After all, any extra data or opposing viewpoint can help you when you handicap a race.

PPM/LHorseJockey
15-1Carina MiaLeparoux
A very talented horse who has been face to face with Songbird in her last start and gave her everything she could handle until Songbird pulled clear by five. Another victim of being born the wrong year. Even with all her talent you can only expect her to fade in the final furlong after putting forth a game effort.
25-2Cathryn SophiaJ Castellano
If there is a miss-step for Songbird then here is your likely beneficiary. Any other year she would be considered the top of her division but unfortunately was born at the wrong time. The Kentucky Oaks winner is 6-for-8 lifetime and has proven a love for the PARX surface with two lifetime scores, both impressive.
320-1Disco RoseE Rivera
Local comes into the Cotillion off of a second place finish in the Princess of Sylmar Stakes. But when put in perspective it was a non-imposing distant second to Cathryn Sophia. With only one lifetime win I cannot find a way where any scenario unfolds with Disco Rose on top. But hey, you ran against Songbird so there is always that.
410-1Land Over SeaM Gutierrez
It can feel like moons ago since she finished runner-up to Cathryn Sophia in the Kentucky Oaks. The Black-Eyed Susan sixth place finished coupled with the abysmal 12h in the Belmont Oaks do not board well for form. But if you are looking for a pseudo live longshot here is your girl. More on that below.
51-2SongbirdM Smith
What is there to say about her? She is a perfect 10-for-10 and comes into PARX off of two impressive G1 scores at the Saratoga meet in the Coaching Club American Oaks and the Alabama Stakes. The unequivocal top of her division and she will have to hate PARX or finally have an off day for the other five to have a chance.
630-1Queena EstherC Cedeno
The other local challenging Songbird and crew in the Cotillion but unlike Disco Rose, there is not even a recent decent start to point to. The 15 length loss that honestly could have been worse in the Princess of Sylmar Stakes ensures that she will be battling her local friend for last.

2016 Cotillion Stakes Live Longshot – (4) Land Over Sea

The reality is that sometimes there are races where finding a longshot is all but impossible. This would be one of those races but if you are trying to find a price, and she will be a price, than Land Over Sea is probably your flyer. There is only one way this is possible and it comes with a few variables.

First, Songbird has to have a bit of hate for the surface at PARX. Second, Carina Mia must push Songbird for the first mile like in their last meeting. Third, Cathryn Sophia must stalk the top two and begin to pressure Songbird as Carina Mia fades. IF all of that happens and Land Over Sea can step up the closing run she showed in the Kentucky Oaks then there is a chance but that is a lot of variables and angles that need to come though. Keep it to maybe $5 or $10 to win and nothing more than that. Maybe a $.50 Trifecta over the top-3 betting choices.

How will it all shake out? It is almost impossible to tell but based on the data I provided in the contenders analysis and the preceding paragraphs, I present some logical betting options based on your favorite cup of tea or betting style. How do you bet a horse race?? What type of bankroll are you playing with? Is it about having a good time and being a part of the spectacle? Or is it about finding a way to make money? No matter what you want or the size of your bankroll there are different ways you can approach the race.

Below are my examples of how to play the 2016 Cotillion based on bankroll. This is a first look at the field in an attempt to maximize a “return” for the 2016 Cotillion Stakes Predictions, Picks, Live Longshot, Analysis

$12 investment
$3 WP4
$.50 Trifecta4,5 with 1,2,4,5
$20 investment
$2 WP4
$.50 Trifecta4,5 with 1,2,4,5
Single Songbird in Pick 3 with $10
$50 investment
$3 WP4
$.50 Trifecta (x2)4,5 with 1,2,4,5
Single Songbird in Pick 4 with $32

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