2017 Belmont Stakes Predictions, Contenders, Live Longshot

2017 BELMONT STAKES PREDICTIONS AND PICKSThe rear view is where we find the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes. In that mirror are tiny specs that look a lot like the Kentucky Derby winner, Always Dreaming and Cloud Computing, the Preakness Stakes winner. Throw in the loss of Classic Empire, who is out with a foot abscess, and it leaves a field that is not normally in the gate for the Belmont Stakes. That means that 2017 Belmont Stakes predictions will be rampant and everyone will talk each horse through the roof. But hey, only Looking At Lee, will run in all three Triple Crown races and the morning line second choice is a Japanese import. Buckle up folks, this could be anywhere from chalk to a huge payday this Saturday at Big Sandy.

Below is a simple breakdown of each horse that is slated to enter the starting gate this Saturday. What you will see is not a complete stat sheet for each horse since you can get that from Daily Racing Form or Equibase. Instead they are my 2017 Belmont Stakes predictions summed up to help each of you make a decision when you walk to the window, the machine or click a mouse to make a wager on the 2017 Belmont Stakes.

 

Race: Belmont Stakes (G1)

Location: Belmont

Distance: Mile and a half

Surface: Dirt

Purse: $1,500,000

Age: 3 Year Olds

Date: Saturday, June 10 2017

Post Time: 6:37 PM ET

TV Coverage:

Belmont Stakes Prep Coverage: NBCSN 3:00 PM – 5 PM EST

Belmont Stakes Prime Coverage: NBC 5:00 – 7:00 PM ET

The Backstory – Over the years I have continued to modify how I break down each race based on input from the readers (Thank for your reading and leaving feedback over the years). That could be from any number of sites I have created content for including Sports Unbiased. However, when I started Longshot Horse Racing, I wanted to apply all I heard and get away from very granular and in-depth analysis of each horse in the field. Many claimed the reading was dry and over the top. Now you will find data about each horse, how it should shake out, and we will have a little fun doing it. If you want just the raw numbers then Brisnet, Equibase, or even the Daily Racing Form are right up your alley (and mine since I love them all) but if you want the breakdown with a twist then read on and enjoy.

2017 Belmont Stakes Predictions – Post Positions and Odds

PPM/LHorse
120-1Twisted Tom
26-1Tapwrit
38-1Gormley
415-1J Boys Echo
530-1Hollywood Handsome
65-1Lookin At Lee
77-2Irish War Cry
812-1Senior Investment
915-1Meantime
1015-1Multiplier
114-1Epicharis
1212-1Patch

racehorse contender art

2017 Belmont Stakes Predictions – Contenders Analysis

red saddle cloth post 1TWISTED TOM (6-4-0-0) – Winner of three in a row broke his maiden here at Big Sandy. The switch to Castellano in the saddle is a plus from Lynch. Chad Brown horses in NY tend to be as close to a sure thing as death and taxes but this is a tough spot for him to say the least. But when you have some Thunder Gulch (previous winner of this race) in the blood and are lightly raced, anything is possible but big improvement is needed. Wait, I think Chad Brown has done this before.

white saddle cloth post 2TAPWRIT (7-3-1-0) – Hard to rule a Todd Pletcher and Jose Ortiz pairing. The challenge could be that when he went to Florida and won the Grade 2 Tampa Derby, he forgot to bring that form with him when he left Florida. The last two have been tough at the Bluegrass and the Derby. The talent is there and should not be overlooked and the current form might just fetch you a price. Tapit kids are kind of good and if they mailed his form in from Florida it can get interesting here.

blue saddle cloth post 3GORMLEY (7-4-0-0) – One this is sure, this will be one of the most relaxing Belmont Stakes that Victor Espinoza has been a part of in a while. He knows the track and he knows how to win here with the largest of pressure. Gormley carries some AP Indy with him and that should give comfort to the distance. Many liked him after the Santa Anita Derby score. Poor derby gets him some real rest and time to adjust to big Sandy. In a speed rationing race, he might not be sexy but he might be winning.

yellow saddle cloth post 4J BOYS ECHO (7-2-1-1) – Here is where things could get a tad bit interesting depending on your opinion of the favorites and how much you are willing to give a pass. Meaning, if you are the type to just forgive and forget then this longshot might be live. Switched to Saez in the Kentucky Derby and was bounced at the start, sent to back and done. Bumped and bobbled at the start two back as well. If you get past that then there is NY racetrack talent, AP Indy bloodlines, and a large step with tactical speed that could score. Interesting.

green saddle cloth post 5HOLLYWOOD HANDSOME (9-2-0-3) – Geroux is a phenomenal jockey and rode him to his first win since breaking maiden in last start. However, that was an allowance race and if you took Geroux off it would be hard to find anything to like here at all. Almost like owner/trainer got together and said they are all leaving so let’s throw a dart and see what sticks. Maybe Geroux can find some magical way to factor in the exotics but even that will be hard.

black saddle cloth post 6LOOKIN AT LEE (11-2-3-2) –  The only stubborn one on the trail that will run in all three. Adding Iran Ortiz in NY is a HUGE plus. There is a lot of buzz about how well he trained at Big Sandy but I have to be real and stick to my guns. He STILL has not won since August of last year. His trip in the Kentucky Derby was an inside dream trip that got him within three lengths. The Preakness set up for him to come and he just didn’t. It is not that he cannot win, he has Lookin At Lucky in him, but why would you bet a horse at 5-1 morning line who is running for the third time in five weeks that has not won in almost a year. Just not smart investing to me.

orange saddle cloth post 7IRISH WAR CRY (6-4-0-0) – One of the popular horses in the Kentucky Derby. Many a wise man said this guy could win. Well then he broke from post 17 and the son of Curlin worked hard to stay up before fading to 10th. He is a multidimensional horse that can win from the front, or tactically form off the pace. If you can forgive him Kentucky and give the Jersey bred some faith, there is a chance here for Maragh and IWC to come home on top in the Belmont. He will go off as the post favorite so you will have to frame your bets accordingly if backing him.

violet saddle cloth post 8SENIOR INVESTMENT (9-3-0-2) – Took a while to break his maiden but since then it has been all systems go. Entered the Triple Crown at the Preakness and showed off an impressive closing kick while trying to reel in Classic Empire and Cloud Computing.  He was fractious and had to be steadied at the beginning of the race but kept up a speed figure advance trend that implies the best is still in front of him. Channing Hill will need the ride of his life but if the pace slows in the long stretch at big Sandy there is a chance he can score. Most definitely an exotics factor but will go off much less that the 12-1 morning line suggests.

teal saddle cloth post 9MEANTIME (4-1-2-1) – Just began racing in February of this year and scored an impressive maiden win by seven in his third start. Tried stakes in the Peter Pan and was caught and passed. Ortiz left and they add Mike Smith but he is out of Shackelford who just melted in the stretch. I cannot see him holding at or with the lead when there are 300 yards to go.

dark purple saddle cloth post 10MULTIPLIER (5-2-1-1) – He will be making his third stakes start and sixth overall in the Belmont Stakes. Frankly he laid a dud in the Preakness when he had a trip that could have played. He was in the group that was like a turf race behind the top two. I know I talked higher on Senior Investment in the same place but he was closing and Multiplier was not. Rosario is talented and believed enough to come back on him again. Anything is possible at a mile and a half but there is too much I do not like to back him here.

grey saddle cloth post 11EPICHARIS (5-4-1-0) – Okay here is my deal summed up as concisely as I can. He was unbeaten in Japan. I cannot tell you the quality of those fields but I can say this. When you are a 1-9 or 2-5 favorite it implies you are class of a field and when those wins are by less than a length it does not ooze awesome to me. The UAE Derby is one we can point two. He finished second there and the jury is still out on the horses he was sandwiched between. Who knows, he has Sunday Silence as grandpa but much like Looking At Lee, I am not backing him at 4-1. The economics just do not work. He can beat me.

lime green saddle cloth post 12PATCH (4-1-2-0) – This is hard to write but… He should have been 50-1 in the Derby with that field but was bet way down because of his story, the one eye etc. It is a great story and do not get me wrong, this horse has talent. You can only assume his price will be much lower like it was in Kentucky and there goes the value. He gets Velazquez back, the last to ride him to a score. This field appears softer than his last but he must step forward with his bloodlines. I want to back him but at the price he will go off at, I cannot touch him.

 

2017 Belmont Stakes Predictions – Live Longshot

(4) J Boys Echo

2017 Belmont Stakes Predictions – Betting Strategy

As I have eluded to in this piece, I am looking for value in a race that could easily be all chalk or all longshots. How will it all shake out? It is almost impossible to tell but based on the data I provided in the contenders analysis and the preceding paragraphs, I present some logical betting options based on your favorite cup of tea or betting style. How do you bet a horse race?? What type of bankroll are you playing with? Is it about having a good time and being a part of the spectacle? Or is it about finding a way to make money? No matter what you want or the size of your bankroll there are different ways you can approach 2017 Belmont Stakes predictions and betting strategies.

$12 investment
$1 Exacta Box3 with 4 with 7
$1 Trifecta Box3 with 4 with 7
$20 investment
$1 Exacta Box3 with 4 with 7
$1 Trifecta Box3 with 4 with 7
$4 Win / Place4
$50 investment
$1 Exacta Box1 with 3 with 4 with 7
$1 Trifecta Box1 with 3 with 4 with 7
$.10 Super Box1 with 3 with 4 with 7 with 8

There you have our 2017 Belmont Stakes predictions. Do you agree or are there other 2017 Belmont Stakes predictions that we did not include? Here at Longshot Horse Racing we are all for readers commenting but can we make a suggestion? Why don’t you write your own piece? It can be 3000 words or even 300.  Here we encourage different opinions and want to give you a chance to build your brand. Join us and let your voice be heard. Just check out the Write With Us link to get started. Don’t worry its easy and remember you can build you brand by writing with us and not for us. That is the big difference. It is all about you in your words.

 

$100 SUO - 728x90

About Adam

Adam is the creator and owner of Longshot Horse Racing which specializes in delivering rich unique content to the ever-growing internet and social media audience. As a writer with an affinity for Horse Racing, he is devoted to providing a fact based, unfiltered analysis of the sport, providing his race analysis tweaked for the "every man" while always remembering to have a little fun. Adam is also Lifetime member of the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America (IBWAA). Adam has an AS in Electronic Systems and a BAS in Electronic Engineering Technology.

2 comments

  1. Think you overlook Tapwrit and Senior Investment. Both aren’t ‘sexy’, but both are trending the right way…

    • Thanks for the comment. I do not think I overlooked either horse. I said the both can do it but I am trying to figure out pricing and I just believe in this field both will go off at a lesser value than I would want to take given the circumstance. thanks again.

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