We all know that every handicapper is always on the hunt for the angle or the hope to grab a horse that scores at a nice price. Even better when that handicapper finds a horse they love, in a race with chalk that comes out and returns $25, $50 or more to win on a $2 bet. There is no better place or time for these expectations to come true that the annual 2-day rite of passage known as the Breeders Cup. Is it easy to pick out 2017 Breeders Cup live longshot picks? Of course it is not.
Everyone will gravitate to the chalk but remember every horse here had to qualify for a shot in the 14 horse limited starting gate for each race. What does that mean? All have some type of merit and everyone (well almost) has a shot to score assuming the perfect weather, pace scenario, and a full out run. Is it more likely with some rather than others? Of course it is but this is no shock.
When you play longshots the reality is they will not come through in every race but the return if you are right is exponential, especially if you play them on top in some form of exotic. For me, there are many races including marquee races I will pass on if I cannot find the horse I want. I have no issue with that and you shouldn’t either even if you have 2017 Breeders Cup Live Longshot Picks but are not 100 percent.
Below is my breakdown of the horses that can be 2017 Breeders Cup live longshot pick for Friday’s races. Take everything as quantifying data and fire away. Will all these come through? I sure hope so but I am a realist. Remember, you do not need a 30-1 to win if you can pair him in an exacta and he runs second. You do not need her to win at 50-1 if she is second to a 4-1 in a trifecta. These all yield great returns. Without further delay, here are my 2017 Breeders Cup live longshot picks. Happy handicapping.
The Backstory – Over the years I have continued to modify how I break down each race based on input from the readers (Thank for your reading and leaving feedback over the years). That could be from any number of sites I have created content for including Sports Unbiased. However, when I started Longshot Horse Racing, I wanted to apply all I heard and get away from very granular and in-depth analysis of each horse in the field. Many claimed the reading was dry and over the top. Now you will find data about each horse, how it should shake out, and we will have a little fun doing it. If you want just the raw numbers then Brisnet, Equibase, or even the Daily Racing Form are right up your alley (and mine since I love them all) but if you want the breakdown with a twist then read on and enjoy.
2017 Breeders Cup Live Longshot Picks – Friday
If you are looking for other betting combinations and have a hard calculating bet costs Longshot Horse Racing has your back. We developed a free simple to use wagering calculator optimized for use outdoors in daylight and at the track. Download the product from the Google Play Store Here. Do not forget to rate the application.
Juvenile Fillies Turf Longshot Play
Best Performance (Morning Line 12-1)– More than interesting entrant here in the one. She will be coming late and the tight turns should not factor since a sweeping outside move is more probable. Last two starts on the grass were more impressive than the stat lines indicates. The pace was slow and a challenge to close into. That will not be the case here. Very very interesting.
Juliet Capulet (Morning Line 12-1)– Shows up here after a solid Group 2 win. This European invader will afford you some value due to concerns that she might not love stretching out to this distance. That being said, the extra distance is somewhat negated by the firmness of the Del Mar turf in comparison to her normal conditions. All current signs point to a horse ready to really fire and she should sit to get the first jump if she lands a stalking trip.
Las Vegas Dirt Mile Longshot Play
Iron Fist (Morning Line 12-1) – You have to love the name right? At five it appears he has carved a home for himself and has been enjoying trips to the winners circle at nice clips. Yes, it was a conscience decision to run him at lesser tracks but it has paid off. While allowance, he does have a win at Del Mar over this distance in the past. This race will have pace he might surprise coming from slightly off.
Battle of Midway (Morning Line 10-1) – Almost always runs a solid race that is never quite enough in the biggest of races but was a solid second in a roughly run last against solid competition. Key here and a hope is that the best run race of his career was his lone start here at Del Mar. Plus you might get a reprieve with Mor Spirit entering off five month break.
Juvenile Turf Longshot Play
Rajasinghe (Morning Line 30-1)- So here is the thing, there are many races over the next couple of days when the favorite will not win but many winners will not be HUGE prices. Here is one that just might be. Having a European invader is never a bad thing in a turf race. The early part of the year through the beginning of summer this one was very solid. Laid an egg last out in the Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes but the turf was clearly not to liking and still could have finished better if asked. Ships in to very firm turf at Del Mar and that could result in a return to form from earlier in the year. While uncertain of exact form, if that happens he bombs the board. At a minimum get in exotics.
Longine Distaff Longshot Play
Paradise Woods (Morning Line 9-2)– While technically not a longshot at 9-2, this is the closest you will get as the fifth choice in an eight horse field. Things look good here. The trends align for her in the Distaff. A good rest break between starts, front running style is favored in Southern California editions, and trainer Mandella guided Beholder to two Distaff scores.
There you have our 2017 Breeders Cup Live Longshot Picks. Do you agree or are there other 2017 Breeders Cup Live Longshot Picks that we did not include? Here at Longshot Horse Racing we are all for readers commenting but can we make a suggestion? Why don’t you write your own piece? It can be 3000 words or even 300. Here we encourage different opinions and want to give you a chance to build your brand. Join us and let your voice be heard. Just check out the Write With Us link to get started. Don’t worry its easy and remember you can build you brand by writing with us and not for us. That is the big difference. It is all about you in your words.