Welcome to the thralls of summer horse racing and Del Mar, one of the most incredible views in all of racing. Del Mar has a few premier races this summer and one of them is upon us in the Grade 1 TVG Pacific Classic. Below is a simple breakdown of each horse that is slated to enter the starting gate this Saturday. What you will see is not a complete stat sheet for each horse since you can get that from Daily Racing Form or Equibase. Instead they are my 2017 TVG Pacific Classic predictions summed up to help each of you make a decision when you walk to the window, the machine or click a mouse to make a wager on the 2017 Pacific Classic.
Race: Pacific Classic (G1)
Location: Del Mar
Distance: Mile and a quarter
Date: Saturday, August 19 2017
Post Time: 5:45 PM PST
The Backstory – Over the years I have continued to modify how I break down each race based on input from the readers (Thank for your reading and leaving feedback over the years). That could be from any number of sites I have created content for including Sports Unbiased. However, when I started Longshot Horse Racing, I wanted to apply all I heard and get away from very granular and in-depth analysis of each horse in the field. Many claimed the reading was dry and over the top. Now you will find data about each horse, how it should shake out, and we will have a little fun doing it. If you want just the raw numbers then Brisnet, Equibase, or even the Daily Racing Form are right up your alley (and mine since I love them all) but if you want the breakdown with a twist then read on and enjoy.
2017 TVG Pacific Classic Predictions – Post Positions and Odds
|1||30-1||Royal Albert Hall|
2017 TVG Pacific Classic Predictions – Contenders Analysis
ROYAL ALBERT HALL – What’s not to like here? Oh wait, almost everything. Started out over the pond racing five times with one score. Shipped to the US and added one win in 21 more starts. Not stakes scores when running only on turf (I.E. every start) but did look decent a couple of times. Claimed off a fourth in last start, a claiming race. New connections must be all seeing oracles stepping him into the Pacific Classic against these for a first ever try on dirt. Nakatani draws the mount and he has won this race before so there is that going for him. He is a closer but that will not matter.
COLLECTED – Here lies to real probably challenger to Arrogate that is not named the Del Mar surface. Collected has scored in his last three. All after a long rest from the uber clunker thrown in the 2016 Preakness. Those three scores are by over 20 lengths. His last run was a 14-length score where his 125 Speed Figure puts him number two. Baffert must have real confidence to line him up next to stablemate Arrogate. This is a huge race above the purse. His effort here at the extra quarter mile will determine if he runs in the BC Classic or the BC Mile. A real shot to win in this group.
ACCELERATE – He helps with the muddy vision that came come from handicapping this race. Hit the board in 11-of-12 starts lifetime and is now the pride owner of the highest Speed Figure of all in this race after his 8+ length score in the San Diego Handicap. That would be the same race where Arrogate fired a blank at 1-20 odds. But he also was comfortably dismantled by Collected in the Precisionist Stakes Here are the interesting parts to the conversation. Is he a new horse with two changed variables during the San Diego Handicap? First, he added Espinoza for the first time and second was the addition of blinkers. That combo could have led to the field best Speed Figure. But we will not know for sure and all the magic eight ball is saying currently is there is a chance.
SORRY ERIK – Sorry Desormeaux brothers, it is hard to fathom a way where he steps up here and triumphs against this group. This is one heck of a top-three and any would be 1-2 at Post Time if it wasn’t for the fact that all three are here. But speaking of fathoms and trying to look for an angle or two that might pay, Desormeaux has been smart about where to place his horses and has pulled off some rather significant scores in the past. While very unlikely that he can pull it off he is the classic three-year-old with upside who was on the Triple Crown tail to start the year. He is also racing with a six-pound advantage. Unlikely…yes…impossible…honestly no. He would have to be the live longshot in a race devoid of a real in.
HARD ACES – So inexperienced to be put in against these. Just kidding, with over 40 career starts this seven-year-old has traveled this road before. He is a money earner if not a winner against Grade 1 competition with only the 2015 Gold Cup to his credit but over 50 percent in the money is big. Coming in off a mile and half race in the Cougar II Handicap so distance has never been a concern. It is the kick that matters and past trips to the Pacific Classic have not ended in large success. I personally love him but it is hard to find a way. I would not be surprised if he is scratched before the race.
DONWORTH – A stakes winner in 2015, yep I had to go to 2015 to give you the highlight, he has been winless since then. His last start, the San Diego Handicap saw him finish a distant second to Accelerate in the race that Arrogate laid an egg. He will need to sit just off and hope for a meltdown but with the class of the top-three that is almost impossible. I like Gutierrez but there has been no scenario that I can construct that puts him on top in this race.
CURLIN ROAD – Okay so I will get to it from the beginning here. Double-digit races to break his maiden. Got up at the nose to win the Cougar II last out over Hard Aces. Four year old that had three solid allowance and optional claiming runs since the claim but this is a whole different animal. A new class and a new tactic to say the least. I give hard Aces almost no chance so since Curlin Road nosed him then he gets slightly more. Let’s say .04 percent chance to win.
ARROGATE – I would love to sit here and say it was that Arrogate had never experienced Del Mar surface and it was not to his liking but that is out the window since he had an almost two length score over eight and a half furlongs at Del Mar last year. It could be that his almost four month layoff created a race when he did not fire. That is more plausible since he is always on and that break was almost double the longest between race break he had experienced since his beginnings. If that truly was the case that Candy Ride’s Pacific Classic record time could be in jeopardy this Saturday. Given his past record and that he is the biggest money earner in North American horse racing history (no small part due to the Pegasus World Cup) I can forgive even the great Arrogate a dud. He just did not fire and did not look interested. Betting him is a whole different animal. Multi-race wagers he is a must but in a single race bet scenario I have to try and beat him or it is not worth the wager.
2017 TVG Pacific Classic Predictions – Live Longshot
(4) SORRY ERIK
2017 TVG Pacific Classic Predictions – Betting Strategy
As I have eluded to in this piece, I am looking for value in a race that could easily be all chalk. How will it all shake out? It is almost impossible to tell but based on the data I provided in the contenders analysis and the preceding paragraphs, I present some logical betting options based on your favorite cup of tea or betting style. How do you bet a horse race?? What type of bankroll are you playing with? Is it about having a good time and being a part of the spectacle? Or is it about finding a way to make money? No matter what you want or the size of your bankroll there are different ways you can approach 2017 TVG Pacific Classic predictions and betting strategies.
|$1 Exacta Box||2 with 3 with 4|
|$1 Exacta Box||2 with 3 with 4|
|$1 Trifecta||2,4 with 2,3,4,8|
|$4 Win / Place||4|
|Note:Might be a better day to go multi-race wagers|
There you have our 2017 TVG Pacific Classic predictions. Do you agree or are there other 2017 TVG Pacific Classic predictions that we did not include? Here at Longshot Horse Racing we are all for readers commenting but can we make a suggestion? Why don’t you write your own piece? It can be 3000 words or even 300. Here we encourage different opinions and want to give you a chance to build your brand. Join us and let your voice be heard. Just check out the Write With Us link to get started. Don’t worry its easy and remember you can build you brand by writing with us and not for us. That is the big difference. It is all about you in your words.