2017 TVG Pacific Classic Predictions, Contenders, Live Longshot

2017 TVG PACIFIC CLASSIC PREDICTIONSWelcome to the thralls of summer horse racing and Del Mar, one of the most incredible views in all of racing. Del Mar has a few premier races this summer and one of them is upon us in the Grade 1 TVG Pacific Classic. Below is a simple breakdown of each horse that is slated to enter the starting gate this Saturday. What you will see is not a complete stat sheet for each horse since you can get that from Daily Racing Form or Equibase. Instead they are my 2017 TVG Pacific Classic predictions summed up to help each of you make a decision when you walk to the window, the machine or click a mouse to make a wager on the 2017 Pacific Classic.

 

Race: Pacific Classic (G1)

Location: Del Mar

Distance: Mile and a quarter

Surface: Dirt

Purse: $1,000,000

Date: Saturday, August 19 2017

Post Time: 5:45 PM PST

The Backstory – Over the years I have continued to modify how I break down each race based on input from the readers (Thank for your reading and leaving feedback over the years). That could be from any number of sites I have created content for including Sports Unbiased. However, when I started Longshot Horse Racing, I wanted to apply all I heard and get away from very granular and in-depth analysis of each horse in the field. Many claimed the reading was dry and over the top. Now you will find data about each horse, how it should shake out, and we will have a little fun doing it. If you want just the raw numbers then Brisnet, Equibase, or even the Daily Racing Form are right up your alley (and mine since I love them all) but if you want the breakdown with a twist then read on and enjoy.

2017 TVG Pacific Classic Predictions – Post Positions and Odds

PPM/LHorse
130-1Royal Albert Hall
25-2Collected
33-1Accelerate
430-1Sorry Erik
520-1Hard Aces
615-1Donworth
720-1Curlin Road
81-1Arrogate

racehorse contender art

2017 TVG Pacific Classic Predictions – Contenders Analysis

red saddle cloth post 1ROYAL ALBERT HALL – What’s not to like here? Oh wait, almost everything. Started out over the pond racing five times with one score. Shipped to the US and added one win in 21 more starts. Not stakes scores when running only on turf (I.E. every start) but did look decent a couple of times. Claimed off a fourth in last start, a claiming race. New connections must be all seeing oracles stepping him into the Pacific Classic against these for a first ever try on dirt. Nakatani draws the mount and he has won this race before so there is that going for him. He is a closer but that will not matter.

 

white saddle cloth post 2COLLECTED – Here lies to real probably challenger to Arrogate that is not named the Del Mar surface. Collected has scored in his last three. All after a long rest from the uber clunker thrown in the 2016 Preakness. Those three scores are by over 20 lengths. His last run was a 14-length score where his 125 Speed Figure puts him number two. Baffert must have real confidence to line him up next to stablemate Arrogate. This is a huge race above the purse. His effort here at the extra quarter mile will determine if he runs in the BC Classic or the BC Mile. A real shot to win in this group.

 

blue saddle cloth post 3ACCELERATE – He helps with the muddy vision that came come from handicapping this race. Hit the board in 11-of-12 starts lifetime and is now the pride owner of the highest Speed Figure of all in this race after his 8+ length score in the San Diego Handicap. That would be the same race where Arrogate fired a blank at 1-20 odds. But he also was comfortably dismantled by Collected in the Precisionist Stakes Here are the interesting parts to the conversation. Is he a new horse with two changed variables during the San Diego Handicap? First, he added Espinoza for the first time and second was the addition of blinkers. That combo could have led to the field best Speed Figure. But we will not know for sure and all the magic eight ball is saying currently is there is a chance.

 

yellow saddle cloth post 4SORRY ERIK – Sorry Desormeaux brothers, it is hard to fathom a way where he steps up here and triumphs against this group. This is one heck of a top-three and any would be 1-2 at Post Time if it wasn’t for the fact that all three are here. But speaking of fathoms and trying to look for an angle or two that might pay,  Desormeaux has been smart about where to place his horses and has pulled off some rather significant scores in the past. While very unlikely that he can pull it off he is the classic three-year-old with upside who was on the Triple Crown tail to start the year. He is also racing with a six-pound advantage. Unlikely…yes…impossible…honestly no. He would have to be the live longshot in a race devoid of a real in.

 

green saddle cloth post 5HARD ACES – So inexperienced to be put in against these. Just kidding, with over 40 career starts this seven-year-old has traveled this road before. He is a money earner if not a winner against Grade 1 competition with only the 2015 Gold Cup to his credit but over 50 percent in the money is big. Coming in off a mile and half race in the Cougar II Handicap so distance has never been a concern. It is the kick that matters and past trips to the Pacific Classic have not ended in large success. I personally love him but it is hard to find a way. I would not be surprised if he is scratched before the race.

 

black saddle cloth post 6DONWORTH – A stakes winner in 2015, yep I had to go to 2015 to give you the highlight, he has been winless since then. His last start, the San Diego Handicap saw him finish a distant second to Accelerate in the race that Arrogate laid an egg. He will need to sit just off and hope for a meltdown but with the class of the top-three that is almost impossible. I like Gutierrez but there has been no scenario that I can construct that puts him on top in this race.

 

orange saddle cloth post 7CURLIN ROAD – Okay so I will get to it from the beginning here. Double-digit races to break his maiden. Got up at the nose to win the Cougar II last out over Hard Aces. Four year old that had three solid allowance and optional claiming runs since the claim but this is a whole different animal. A new class and a new tactic to say the least. I give hard Aces almost no chance so since Curlin Road nosed him then he gets slightly more. Let’s say .04 percent chance to win.

 

violet saddle cloth post 8ARROGATE – I would love to sit here and say it was that Arrogate had never experienced Del Mar surface and it was not to his liking but that is out the window since he had an almost two length score over eight and a half furlongs at Del Mar last year. It could be that his almost four month layoff created a race when he did not fire. That is more plausible since he is always on and that break was almost double the longest between race break he had experienced since his beginnings. If that truly was the case that Candy Ride’s Pacific Classic record time could be in jeopardy this Saturday. Given his past record and that he is the biggest money earner in North American horse racing history (no small part due to the Pegasus World Cup) I can forgive even the great Arrogate a dud. He just did not fire and did not look interested. Betting him is a whole different animal. Multi-race wagers he is a must but in a single race bet scenario I have to try and beat him or it is not worth the wager.

2017 TVG Pacific Classic Predictions – Live Longshot

(4) SORRY ERIK

 

2017 TVG Pacific Classic Predictions – Betting Strategy

As I have eluded to in this piece, I am looking for value in a race that could easily be all chalk. How will it all shake out? It is almost impossible to tell but based on the data I provided in the contenders analysis and the preceding paragraphs, I present some logical betting options based on your favorite cup of tea or betting style. How do you bet a horse race?? What type of bankroll are you playing with? Is it about having a good time and being a part of the spectacle? Or is it about finding a way to make money? No matter what you want or the size of your bankroll there are different ways you can approach 2017 TVG Pacific Classic predictions and betting strategies.

 

$12 investment
$1 Exacta Box2 with 3 with 4
$3 WP4
$20 investment
$1 Exacta Box2 with 3 with 4
$1 Trifecta 2,4 with 2,3,4,8
$4 Win / Place4
Note:Might be a better day to go multi-race wagers

There you have our 2017 TVG Pacific Classic predictions. Do you agree or are there other 2017 TVG Pacific Classic predictions that we did not include? Here at Longshot Horse Racing we are all for readers commenting but can we make a suggestion? Why don’t you write your own piece? It can be 3000 words or even 300.  Here we encourage different opinions and want to give you a chance to build your brand. Join us and let your voice be heard. Just check out the Write With Us link to get started. Don’t worry its easy and remember you can build you brand by writing with us and not for us. That is the big difference. It is all about you in your words.

Complete List of Clement Hirsch Winners, Champions Every Year

(Del Mar FB Page)
(Del Mar FB Page)

Location – Del Mar Thoroughbred Club

Distance – 1 1/16 Miles

Surface – Dirt

Purse – $300,000

Restrictions – Fillies and Mares, Three-year-old and up

YearWinnerJockeyTrainerOwnerTime
2016Stellar WindVictor EspinozaJohn W. SadlerHronis Racing1:41.24
2015BeholderGary L. StevensRichard E. MandellaSpendthrift Farm1:43.81
2014IotapaJoe TalamoJohn W. SadlerHronis Racing1:43.04
2013Lady of FiftyCorey NakataniJerry HollendorferHollendorfer/Todaro1:42.96
2012Include Me OutJoe TalamoRonald W. EllisJay Em Ess Stable1:41.96
2011Ultra BlendTyler BazeArt ShermanNels J. Erickson1:42.28
2010ZenyattaMike E. SmithJohn ShirreffsJerry & Ann Moss1:45.03
2009ZenyattaMike E. SmithJohn ShirreffsJerry & Ann Moss1:43.24
2008ZenyattaMike E. SmithJohn ShirreffsJerry & Ann Moss1:41.48
2007Nashoba's KeyJoe TalamoCarla GainesWarren B. Williamson1:48.29
2006Healthy AddictionVictor EspinozaJohn W. SadlerPamela C. Ziebarth1:42.92
2005Tucked AwayAlex SolisPatrick GallagherNico Nierenberg1:42.82
2004Miss LorenJon CourtLuis E. SeglinLlers Corporation1:42.93
2003AzeriMike E. SmithLaura de SerouxA. E. Paulson Trust1:42.12
2002AzeriMike E. SmithLaura de SerouxA. E. Paulson Trust1:42.66
2001Tranquility LakeEd DelahoussayeJulio C. CananiPam & Martin Wygod1:41.78
2000RibolettaChris McCarronEduardo IndaAaron & Marie Jones1:42.06
1999A Lady From DixieChris AntleyD. Wayne LukasM/M Robert Randal1:43.40
1998Sharp CatCorey NakataniWallace DollaseThe Thoroughbred Corp.1:42.00
1997Radu CoolChris McCarronJohn Shirreffs505 Farms1:42.60
1996DifferentChris McCarronRandy McAnallySidney Craig1:42.40
1995BorodislewChris McCarronEduardo Inda505 Farms1:41.80
1994PaseanaChris McCarronRon McAnallySidney Craig1:40.40
1993Magical MaidenGary StevensWarren StuteClement L. Hirsch1:42.60
1992ExchangeLaffit Pincay, Jr.Bill SpawrSidney Craig1:42.00
1991Vieille VigneMartin PedrozaJude FeldFry & Gasen1:42.60
1990BayakoaLaffit Pincay, Jr.Ron McAnallyM/M Frank Whitham1:40.60
1989Goodbye HaloCorey BlackCharlie WhittinghamCampbell & Hancock III1:41.80
1988Clabber GirlChris McCarronD. Wayne LukasJohn A. Nerud1:41.60
1987InfinidadCorey BlackCharlie WhittinghamA. B. Hancock III1:41.40
1986Fran's ValentineBill ShoemakerJoe ManziGreen Thumb Farm1:41.40
1985Dontstop ThemusicDarrel McHargueRandy WinickM/M Albert Broccoli1:41.80
1984Princess RooneyPat ValenzuelaNeil D. DrysdalePaula J. Tucker1:40.40
1983SangueBill ShoemakerHenry MorenoR. C. Parks1:42.20
1982MatchingRay SibilleSteven MorguelanGlencrest Farm/Morguelan1:40.00
1981Save Wild LifeChris McCarronHoward M. TesherH. Joseph Allen1:41.60
1980Wayside StationPat ValenzuelaEddie GregsonHarris Farms1:28.80
1980Galaxy LibraBill ShoemakerCharlie WhittinghamL. Rowan (Lessee)1:29.00
1979He's DewanDarrel McHargueJerry M. FanningDan J. Agnew1:29.00
1978NantequosDarrel McHargueRon McAnallyM/M Albert Katz1:29.40
1977Notably DifferentChuck BaltazarJay M. RobbinsArthur, Parsons & Robbins1:29.40
1977AuthorizationDarrel McHargueWillard L. ProctorGlen Hill Farm1:29.20
1976UniformityRudy CampasWillard L. ProctorGlen Hill Farm1:28.20
1975Bahia KeyWayne HarrisR. K. MitchellMitchell & Wiener1:34.00
1974Bahia KeyAlvaro PinedaR. K. MitchellMitchell & Wiener1:34.20
1973GrotonianBill ShoemakerCharlie WhittinghamM. L. Everett1:50.60
1967Daystar IIBill HartackFarrell W. JonesM/M H. Harcourt1:35.20

Complete List of Pacific Classic Winners, Champions Every Year

(Del Mar FB Page)
(Del Mar FB Page)

Location – Del Mar Thoroughbred Club

Distance – 1 ¼ Miles

Surface – Dirt

Purse – $1,000,000

Restrictions – Three-year-olds and up

YearWinnerJockeyTrainerOwnerTime
2016California ChromeVictor EspinozaArt ShermanCalifornia Chrome, LLC2:00.13
2015Beholder†Gary L. StevensRichard MandellaSpendthrift Farm1:59.77
2014Shared BeliefMike SmithJerry HollendorferJungle Racing, KMN Racing et al.2:00.28
2013Game On DudeMartin GarciaBob BaffertLanni Family Trust/Mercedes Stable LLC/Schiappa2:00.69
2012DullahanJoel RosarioDale RomansDonegal Racing1:59.54
2011AcclamationPat ValenzuelaDonald WarrenHilvers, Peter and Mary and Johnston, E. W. and Judy2:00.61
2010Richard's KidMike E. SmithBob BaffertZabeel Racing International2:03.27
2009Richard's KidMike E. SmithBob BaffertArnold Zetcher2:02.39
2008Go BetweenGarrett K. GomezWilliam I. MottPeter Vegso2:01:18
2007Student CouncilRichard MiglioreVladimir CerinMillennium Farms2:07.29
2006Lava ManCorey NakataniDoug O'NeillSTD Stable/Jason Wood2:01.62
2005BorregoGarrett K. GomezC. Beau GreelyKelly, Ralls, Foster, et al.2:00.71
2004Pleasantly PerfectJerry D. BaileyRichard MandellaDiamond A Racing Corp2:01.17
2003Candy Ride (ARG)Julie KroneRon McAnallySidney & Jenny Craig1:59.11
2002Came HomeMike E. SmithJ. Paco GonzalezW.S. Farish III et al.2:01.45
2001SkimmingGarrett K. GomezRobert J. FrankelJuddmonte Farms1:59.96
2000SkimmingGarrett K. GomezRobert J. FrankelJuddmonte Farms2:01.22
1999General ChallengeDavid R. FloresBob BaffertGolden Eagle Farm2:00.40
1998Free HouseChris McCarronJ. Paco GonzalezToffan & McCaffery2:00.20
1997Gentlemen (ARG)Gary L. StevensRichard MandellaRandall Dee Hubbard2:00.40
1996Dare And GoAlex SolisRichard MandellaLa Presle Farm1:59.80
1995Tinners WayEd DelahoussayeRobert J. FrankelJuddmonte Farms1:59.60
1994Tinners WayEd DelahoussayeJohn GosdenJuddmonte Farms1:59.40
1993BertrandoGary L. StevensRobert J. Frankel505 Farms/Ed Nahem1:59.55
1992Missionary RidgeKent DesormeauxRobert J. FrankelPeter Wall2:00.80
1991Best PalPat ValenzuelaGary F. JonesGolden Eagle Farm1:59.80

Complete List of Bing Crosby Stakes Winners, Champions Every Year

(Del Mar FB Page)
(Del Mar FB Page)

Location – Del Mar Thoroughbred Club

Distance – 6 Furlongs

Surface – Dirt

Purse – $300,000

Restrictions – Three-year-olds and up

YearWinnerJockeyTrainerOwnerTime
2016Lord NelsonFlavien PratBob BaffertSpendthrift Farm1:07.65
2015Wild DudeFlavien PratJerry HollendorferHollendorfer/Smith1:09.51
2014Big MacherTyler BazeRichard BaltasMansor/Tachycardia Stables1:08.82
2013Points OffthebenchMike E. SmithTim YakteenCrevier/Martin1:09.04
2012AmazombieMike E. SmithWilliam SpawrSanford/Spawr1:08.65
2011EuroearsRafael BejaranoBob BaffertJames and Marilyn Helzer1:08.17
2010Smiling TigerVictor EspinozaJeff BondeAlan Klein/Phil Lebherz1:09.21
2009ZensationalVictor EspinozaBob BaffertZayat Stables1:08.57
2008Street BossDavid FloresBruce HeadleyHeadley/Naify/Yu1:08.67
2007In SummationCorey NakataniChristophe ClementWaterford Stable1:11.06
2006Pure as GoldJon K. CourtJack CaravaLa Canada Stable1:08.79
2005Greg's GoldDavid R. FloresDavid HofmansWilliam R. Boswell1:08.04
2004KelaTyler BazeMike R. MitchellJay Manoogian1:08.51
2003Beau's TownPat ValenzuelaCole NormanDavid Hulkewicz1:07.96
2002DisturbingthepeaceVictor EspinozaDarrell ViennaDavid & Rita Milch1:09.21
2001Kona GoldAlex SolisBruce HeadleyHeadley & Molasky1:08.22
2000Kona GoldAlex SolisBruce HeadleyHeadley & Molasky1:08.50
1999Christmas BoyCorey NakataniJohn W. SadlerOpas & Sinatra1:08.11
1998Son of a PistolAlex SolisBruce HeadleyLuis Asistio et al.1:08.10
1997First IntentRene R. DouglasJack CaravaLima Family Trust1:08.80
1996Lit De JusticeCorey NakataniJenine SahadiEvergreen Farm1:08.19
1995Gold LandEd DelahoussayeNeil DrysdalePrince Fahd Salman1:08.07
1994King's BladeCorey NakataniRichard MandellaGamel & Kinerk1:08.64
1993The Wicked NorthCorey BlackDavid BernsteinPhilip Hersh1:08.52
1992Thirty SlewsEd DelahoussayeBob BaffertDegroot & Dutch Masters III1:08.20
1991BruhoCorey NakataniJerry M. FanningJ. M. Scardino1:08.25
1990Sensational StarRafael MezaWilliam SpawrCalhoun-Risoldi-Sullivan1:08.00
1989On The LineGary L. StevensD. Wayne LukasEugene V. Klein1:08.00
1988Olympic ProspectAlex SolisJohn W. SadlerAlsdorf, Opas & Sinatra1:08.80
1987Zany TacticsJack KaenelBlake R. HeapVera C. Brunette1:09.00
1986American LegionEd DelahoussayeD. Wayne LukasMelvin E. Hatley1:08.20
1985My Favorite MomentEd DelahoussayeWarren StuteWilliam L. Conner1:09.80
1984Night MoverLuis OrtegaRobert J. FrankelJerry & Ann Moss1:08.60
1983Chinook PassLaffit Pincay, Jr.Laurie N. AndersonHi-Yu Stable1:08.60
1982Pencil PointChris McCarronNeil FrenchDe Benedetti & Duffel1:09.00
1981SyncopateEd DelahoussayeRon McAnallyElmendorf Farm1:08.60
1980Reb's Golden AleSandy HawleyJerry M. Fanning3 Plus U Stable1:08.80
1979SyncopateSandy HawleyRon McAnallyElmendorf Farm1:08.40
1978Bad'n BigBill ShoemakerRichard MandellaDr/M. B. Wynne, Jr.1:07.80
1977Cherry RiverLaffit Pincay, Jr.Douglas R. OliverDouglas R. Oliver1:08.40
1976Cherry RiverLaffit Pincay, Jr.Douglas R. OliverDouglas R. Oliver1:09.40
1975Messenger of SongJerry LambertGordon C. CampbellBernard J. Ridder1:08.80
1974Rise HighJorge TejeiraLarry RoseSidney Factor1:09.00
1973Pataha PrinceBill ShoemakerRobert J. FrankelM. R. Frankel1:08.00
1972Dominant StarFernando AlvarezCecil JollyV. H. Winchell, Jr.1:08.80
1971HaveagoJohnny SellersTommy DoyleGeorge Franklin Getty II1:08.20
1970Bargain DayRudy RosalesCharles WhittinghamForked Lightning Ranch1:27.60
1969Kissin' GeorgeWilliam T. MahorneyBuster MillerickDeCourcy Graham1:07.80
1968PretenseDonald R. PierceCharles WhittinghamLlangollen Farm1:07.80
1967Kissin' GeorgeWilliam T. MahorneyBuster MillerickDeCourcy Graham1:08.60
1966ChicleroDonald R. PierceBob R. RobertsBingman & Gheen1:08.80
1965Viking SpiritKenneth ChurchJames I. NazworthyThomas E. Brittingham III1:08.60
1964Soldier GirlJohnny LongdenCharles A. ComiskeyM/M J. Tusquellas1:09.40
1963SledgeMiguel YanezWillis A. ReavisDee Dee Stable1:08.60
1962Sea OrbitRaymond YorkJohn M. LeavittWonder Y Ranch1:08.80
1962Crazy KidAngel ValenzuelaJohn G. CantyVista Hermosa Stable1:07.80
1961Ann's KnightRobert MundorfFarrell W. JonesM/M S. N. Simmons1:08.60
1960High PerformanceRudy CampasEdward E. PresnellM/M Maurice H. Robineau1:09.00
1959Ole FolsIsmael ValenzuelaWilliam B. FinneganNeil S. McCarthy1:08.80
1958How NowWillie HarmatzCecil JollyGeorge C. Newell1:09.40
1957How NowRaymond YorkCecil JollyGeorge C. Newell1:09.20
1956Colonel MackRalph NevesSam BrunsonA C T Stock Farm1:08.80
1955One Ton TonyPete MorenoCecel WihelmW-L Ranch Co.1:09.20
1954Alibhai LynnJoe PhillippiRichard D. MoonG. I. Martin1:09.60
1953OdeRaymond YorkRichard D. MoonG. I. Martin1:10.20
1952GustafWillie MarshWilliam W. MorrisMrs C. C. Cate1:10.00
1951Blue ReadingBill PearsonRed McDanielM/M Clement L. Hirsch1:10.40
1950ImpreriumBill ShoemakerWilliam B. FinneganDelman & Finnegan1:09.80
1949Cover UpMerlin VolzkeBob R. RobertsZ T Addington1:10.00
1948PrevaricatorJose BravoWilliam MolterE. O. Stice & Sons1:10.20
1947Be FearlessLester BalaskiR. LyallCuadra Coahuila1:10.80
1946War Allies *Ralph NevesHack RossL. J. Montgomery1:11.40
1946Indian Watch *M. PetersonHarry DunsterRancho Ojo Agua1:11.40

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club Information, Weather Forecast, Directions

del-mar-fb-image
(Del Mar FB Page)

The Del Mar Thoroughbred Club is one of Southern California’s premier racing destinations. The marquee event of the calendar year at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club is the Grade 1 Pacific Classic. Del Mar has arguable the most scenic views in all of horse racing when you couple great facilities with the ocean views. It is an experience to itself and one that every racing fan should experience.

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club Information

2260 Jimmy Durante Blvd

Del Mar CA 92014

 

Main Course: 1 Mile

Turf Course: 7/8 Mile

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club Information – Weather



Del Mar Thoroughbred Club Information – Map and Directions