PARX Late Pick 4 Picks Incl. Penn Derby, Cotillion Stakes, Gallant Bob Sept 24

blue horses racingDo you like exotics? Are you a multi-race player? Below is the quick hit approach of how I would (and probably will) play the late Pick 4 at PARX this Saturday the 24th of 2016. It is the biggest racing day of the year at PARX and that can be seen in the late Pick 4. Races 8 thru 11 are all stakes including the PA Derby Champion Stakes, the Grade 3 Gallant Bob Stakes, the Grade 1 Cotillion Stakes, and culminating in the Grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby. Let’s not waste time and get into the picks.

 

$.50 Pick 4 Race 8-11 Saturday September 24

Race 8 PA Derby Champion Stakes (Frosted Stakes)

Distance –Mile and a sixteenth

(1) Cyrus Alexander 6/1 Won G3 Lone Star Park Handicap and second last out in G3 Longacres Mile. Bejarano has the mount and he watched the tape. Move him a bit earlier and he can get there.

(4) Res Judicata 4/1 Second last time out in the Roanoke Stakes here at PARX. Could be the speed of the race and Castellano will do his best to have him up front. We will see if he hangs on.

(7) Tale of Life 3/1 Scored a victory in Saratoga in last start at a mile and an eighth. It was an optional claimer but it was Saratoga. Geroux a plus in the saddle.

 

Race 9 Gallant Bob Stakes (G3)

Distance- Six Furlongs

(3) Threefiveindia 7/2 Transferred to the Chad Brown barn before a second-level optional-claiming score at Saratoga. He will step forward and his 6.28 in the final sixteenth last out is impressive. Castellano has the mount.

(4) Navy Hymn 5/1 Ships in from the “left coast” and leaves California for the first time. Does have scores on multiple tracks. Enters stakes competition but is three-for-three lifetime at six furlongs. Bejarano knows how to get this done.

(5) Noholdingback Bear 5/2 Comes in off a third at the G1 Kings Bishop. Drop down will help. Has won on multiple tracks at this distance. Can take the lead or stalk. That could be here at PARX. Not a fan of a short price in this race but cannot be ignored.

(11) Klingon Warrior 20/1 True it is a bit of a flyer and stepping up for the first time but consider this. Only two career starts, both wins. Both of those wins and starts are here at the quirky PARX. He retains the winning jockey and is second off a long layoff. Could be a very nice price.

 

Race 10 Cotillion Stakes (G1)

Distance- Mile and a sixteenth

** This is a really tough one for me. Not because I do not believe but I want to go two deep here with Cathryn Sophia but I am trying to keep the price down. I will give three options below.**

(2) Cathryn Sophia 5/2 Yes it is true, the Kentucky Oaks winner is not undefeated but she is six-for-eight with the other two being thirds. The only real unknown against Songbird since they have yet to meet until now. She loves PARX with two scores here already. We know the surface at PARX can be bizarre and Cathryn Sophia Proven she can handle it.

(5) Songbird 1/2 Honestly there is no real knock that can be made. Perfect 10-for-10 over multiple tracks, distance, and states. Most wins are not even all out yet still convincing. The closest to a sure thing in this pick 4. The probable single for the Pick 4.

*On a fair track beware of a closing Land Over Sea*

 

Race 11 Pennsylvania Derby (G2)

Distance- Mile and an eighth

(7) Gun Runner 6/1 An interesting play because it seems a large portion knock him. He has two bad goes of it and bot were in the slop. The weather is a non-factor this weekend. Great last start against other-worldly performance from Arrogate. Geroux is lighting it up and stays with him.  Battling top class all year so don’t sleep here.

(9) Nyquist 5/2 How the mighty have fallen in many eyes. It was not long ago he came out of the Kentucky Derby still undefeated and toppling everyone he faced. Then two losses and here we are. But both losses were on off tracks and he was inexplicably set to speed duels when he could have rated and kicked at the turn. Expect a return to rate in this one and that could put him back on track.

*If pulled back, beware of Connect who could be a factor here if he avoids pace duel.*

The Plays:

Cheaper Option Cost $12
Rc 8(1) Cyrus Alexander, (4) Res Jusicata, (7) Tale of Life
Rc 9(3) Threefiveindia, (4) Navy Hymn, (5) Noholdingback, (11) Klingon Warrior
Rc 10(5) Songbird
Rc 11(7) Gun Runner, (9) Nyquist
Medium Option Cost $24
Rc 8(1) Cyrus Alexander, (4) Res Jusicata, (7) Tale of Life
Rc 9(3) Threefiveindia, (4) Navy Hymn, (5) Noholdingback, (11) Klingon Warrior
Rc 10(2) Cathryn Sophia, (5) Songbird
Rc 11(7) Gun Runner, (9) Nyquist
Pricy Option Cost $36
Rc 8(1) Cyrus Alexander, (4) Res Jusicata, (7) Tale of Life
Rc 9(3) Threefiveindia, (4) Navy Hymn, (5) Noholdingback, (11) Klingon Warrior
Rc 10(2) Cathryn Sophia, (5) Songbird
Rc 11(4) Connect, (7) Gun Runner, (9) Nyquist

2016 Pennsylvania Derby Predictions, Picks, Live Longshot, Analysis

lhr-horse-racing-picksThe Grade 2 that wants to be a Grade 1, the Pennsylvania Derby, will be run this Saturday at PARX. With this year’s field, there is no doubt that the Pennsylvania Derby will become a Grade 1 in 2017 so here is an early congrats to the track.  This will be the 40th running of the race and all the big names (well a bunch) are showing up. This is arguably the final major stop for the boys before the Breeders’ Cup World Championships. PARX is a unique track that has seen its share of entries ship in and just not like the surface. What will happen this year?

Race: Pennsylvania Derby (G2)

Location: PARX

Distance: Mile and an eighth

Surface: Dirt

Purse: $1,000,000 ($1,250,000 if both Nyquist and Exaggerator start)

Age: 3 Year Olds

Date: Saturday, September 24 2016

Post Time: 5:45 PM EST

The Backstory – Over the years I have continued to modify how I break down each race based on input from the readers (Thank for your reading and leaving feedback regardless of the site). Years ago I provided very granular and in-depth analysis of each horse in the field.  However, as many claimed the reading was dry and over the top as such I began the change. Here at Longshot Horse Racing, these articles will provide you with data about each horse, how it should shake out, and we will have a little fun doing it.

If you want just the raw numbers then Brisnet, Equibase, or even the Daily Racing Form are right up your alley (and mine since I love them all) but if you want the breakdown with a twist then read on and enjoy. The track record is solid since I tend to stick with the big races each year. You will not find a breakdown of a claiming race next Sunday but if you want the major preps, Triple Crown series, Travers, and more than this is the place for you. After all, any extra data or opposing viewpoint can help you when you handicap a race.

PPM/LHorseJockey
112-1Awesome SlewP Lopez
His run last out in the G3 Smarty Jones was very impressive scoring by over five comfortable lengths with run to spare. Here is a horse that likes the lead and breaks from Post 1 so you expect a frontend favoring jockey on a front end horse to push the throttle. Issue here is that he will not go alone and there is real talents that will be running with him. On the plus side, he has a graded stakes score over this surface already.
27-2ExaggeratorK Desormeaux
The tale of two horses to say the least. That does not imply negativity but rather the situation. We have a large enough body of work to show that he loves the off track and is a step below on a fast surface. If you look then you must go back to his original two victories to find success on a dry surface. But, his two scores this year were on wet tracks albeit against top competition. The weather for Saturday is good so a dry track can be expected. In his favor is what seems to be setting up as a blistering pace. He will be coming late.
320-1Summer RevolutionM Smith
Smith gets the mount after Castellano decided to hop on Connect. A Hall of Fame jockey is never a bad thing but this could be asking a lot. He is full of speed and will be up front but he is green and appears to prefer a shorter distance. His presence will be felt but it could be in setting this race up for a stalking or closing type.
412-1ConnectJ Castellano
If you look at his last race in the Travers you want to toss him off of a sixth place finish but not so fast. the Travers saw a run from Arrogate that broke records en route to crushing a talented field. For more see my live longshot.
59-2CupidR Bejarano
While other ran in Saratoga etc. Cupid was taken to tackle stakes in Indiana and West Virginia. Seems like Baffert made the right call as Cupid dispelled all others in both stakes en route to two scores. Bejarano is more than talented and has the mount again but he might be forced into the decision wheel as Cupid likes the front. Can he rate or come from off the pace. That is an unknown at this point against these but that seems like it will be the most logical. Unless of course, Bejarno believe he can set the pace and hold, which is asking a lot.
630-1Wild About DebT Pereira
There is not a whole lotta love here. One career score on the left coast but has been housed here at PARX after the trainer swap. Not really in line to set the pace or really factor here at all. It would take one heck of a step forward in order to hit the board. Just the reality of it.
76-1Gun RunnerF Geroux
The shine seems to be coming off of him lately but you need to look closer at the last two races. He has excuses in both. In his last, the Travers, the distance might have been a bit much for him and he ran against the insanity of Arrogate. Prior, his Haskell run was over horrible track conditions that were clearly not to his liking. He has a top jockey on his back and excluding those two this horse always runs big even if that ends in a runner-up. His stalking style could work perfectly for the expected race speed. Should not be overlooked.
820-1My Man SamJ Leparoux
Remember when he was a wise guy horse in the Kentucky Derby after he flew home late in the Bluegrass Stakes to finish second? Seems like an eternity ago because frankly, he has not done much since then. His closing kick could be perfect for this race but the reality is whether or not he has matured or should he just be an allowance/ named stakes runner. Not much to love unless it is destiny.
95-2NyquistM Guitierrez
He was the darling of the world when he entered and came out of the Kentucky Derby undefeated. But then he ran into a bit of fatigue and an off track where he was gobbled up by Exaggerator in the Preakness. He was sent to rest and returned for the Haskell where he ran into poor track and Exaggerator again. Can you toss those? It is getting tough but he seems to be maturing physically,been training to stretch distance, and has shown the ability to rate. He is the deserving favorite but it could be considered more luke warm than in May. Full of ability and talent so do not rule him out.
1015-1Sunny RidgeJ Bravo
A horse destined for exotics placement is probably the way to describe him. It si hard to nail him down because the trainer and group seem to lack a rhyme or reason for what they do with him. He has never laid a clunker but has never stepped to the front of the line in a big race. He managed to finish third in the Haskell at last asking but overall it appears that G1 competition is just a step too far for him to get into winners circle. But if everyone can ever get him razor focused he just might score at big odds, just not this Saturday.
1130-1Discreet LoverJ Flores
A local boy looking to make good in the hometown big one but...this is a bridge that is arguably way too far. There is not to point to that says he is ready to topple any one or more of these. If you are looking for some shining light, he has two scores over this surface but those were against much the lesser competition.
1220-1Hit It Once MoreK Camouche
Probably a case of the trainer and owners eyes getting a bit to wide. Sure it is true, he has two stakes scores in his last two race but restricted stakes races are nothing like the level of competition that will be to his inside this Saturday. Drawing the far outside could be the death blow for a horse that wants the front and will have to burn it all to get there before the first turn or get hung five wide. Perfect example of a good but not great horse. To win this race you need to be in one of the great tiers and he is just not.

2016 Pennsylvania Derby Live Longshot – (4) Connect

He will have to take a step forward to meet the need but at three-years-old level it could happen. As I mentioned already the Travers Stakes happened and it could be a nail in the coffin for many handicappers. But if you go back from that race, you see a solid run in the Curlin where he battled for victory. It is true he was forwardly placed but that is no death curse, not even here.

Breaking from post four could be a gift for this horse. Castellano has two blitz speed horses inside him and could settle to a stalking trip and should be able to get the rail in the second pack. He will be forwardly placed and let the top of the pack burn each other out. It is true he will probably be in a group with Nyquist and Gun Runner but if he saves ground on the rail that might be just enough for Castellano to bring him home.

How will it all shake out? It is almost impossible to tell but based on the data I provided in the contenders analysis and the preceding paragraphs, I present some logical betting options based on your favorite cup of tea or betting style. How do you bet a horse race?? What type of bankroll are you playing with? Is it about having a good time and being a part of the spectacle? Or is it about finding a way to make money? No matter what you want or the size of your bankroll there are different ways you can approach the race.

Below are my examples of how to play the 2016 Pennsylvania Derby based on bankroll. This is a first look at the field in an attempt to maximize a “return” for the 2016 Pennsylvania Derby Predictions, Picks, Live Longshot, Analysis

$12 investment
$1 Exacta Box4 with 7 with 9
$1 Trifecta Box4 with 7 with 9
$20 investment
$1 Exacta Box4 with 7 with 9
$1 Trifecta Box4 with 7 with 9
$4 Win / Place4
$50 investment
$1 Exacta Box4 with 7 with 9 with 10
$1 Trifecta Box4 with 7 with 9 with 10
$.10 Super Box4 with 5 with 7 with 9 with 10

2016 Cotillion Stakes Predictions, Picks, Live Longshot, Analysis

lhr-horse-racing-picksThe 2016 Cotillion Stakes at PARX will be the 50th edition of the Grade 1 race and it can be argued that is the clash of the three-year-old female titans. The Cotillion shares top billing on the biggest day of the PARX schedule with the Grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby. This is arguably the final major stop before the Breeders’ Cup World Championships. PARX is a unique track that has seen its share of entries ship in and just not like the surface. What will happen this year?

Race: Cotillion Stakes (G1)

Location: PARX

Distance: Mile and a sixteenth

Surface: Dirt

Purse: $1,000,000

Age: 3 Year Olds

Date: Saturday, September 24 2016

Post Time: 4:55 PM EST

The Backstory – Over the years I have continued to modify how I break down each race based on input from the readers (Thank for your reading and leaving feedback regardless of the site). Years ago I provided very granular and in-depth analysis of each horse in the field.  However, as many claimed the reading was dry and over the top as such I began the change. Here at Longshot Horse Racing, these articles will provide you with data about each horse, how it should shake out, and we will have a little fun doing it.

If you want just the raw numbers then Brisnet, Equibase, or even the Daily Racing Form are right up your alley (and mine since I love them all) but if you want the breakdown with a twist then read on and enjoy. The track record is solid since I tend to stick with the big races each year. You will not find a breakdown of a claiming race next Sunday but if you want the major preps, Triple Crown series, Travers, and more than this is the place for you. After all, any extra data or opposing viewpoint can help you when you handicap a race.

PPM/LHorseJockey
15-1Carina MiaLeparoux
A very talented horse who has been face to face with Songbird in her last start and gave her everything she could handle until Songbird pulled clear by five. Another victim of being born the wrong year. Even with all her talent you can only expect her to fade in the final furlong after putting forth a game effort.
25-2Cathryn SophiaJ Castellano
If there is a miss-step for Songbird then here is your likely beneficiary. Any other year she would be considered the top of her division but unfortunately was born at the wrong time. The Kentucky Oaks winner is 6-for-8 lifetime and has proven a love for the PARX surface with two lifetime scores, both impressive.
320-1Disco RoseE Rivera
Local comes into the Cotillion off of a second place finish in the Princess of Sylmar Stakes. But when put in perspective it was a non-imposing distant second to Cathryn Sophia. With only one lifetime win I cannot find a way where any scenario unfolds with Disco Rose on top. But hey, you ran against Songbird so there is always that.
410-1Land Over SeaM Gutierrez
It can feel like moons ago since she finished runner-up to Cathryn Sophia in the Kentucky Oaks. The Black-Eyed Susan sixth place finished coupled with the abysmal 12h in the Belmont Oaks do not board well for form. But if you are looking for a pseudo live longshot here is your girl. More on that below.
51-2SongbirdM Smith
What is there to say about her? She is a perfect 10-for-10 and comes into PARX off of two impressive G1 scores at the Saratoga meet in the Coaching Club American Oaks and the Alabama Stakes. The unequivocal top of her division and she will have to hate PARX or finally have an off day for the other five to have a chance.
630-1Queena EstherC Cedeno
The other local challenging Songbird and crew in the Cotillion but unlike Disco Rose, there is not even a recent decent start to point to. The 15 length loss that honestly could have been worse in the Princess of Sylmar Stakes ensures that she will be battling her local friend for last.

2016 Cotillion Stakes Live Longshot – (4) Land Over Sea

The reality is that sometimes there are races where finding a longshot is all but impossible. This would be one of those races but if you are trying to find a price, and she will be a price, than Land Over Sea is probably your flyer. There is only one way this is possible and it comes with a few variables.

First, Songbird has to have a bit of hate for the surface at PARX. Second, Carina Mia must push Songbird for the first mile like in their last meeting. Third, Cathryn Sophia must stalk the top two and begin to pressure Songbird as Carina Mia fades. IF all of that happens and Land Over Sea can step up the closing run she showed in the Kentucky Oaks then there is a chance but that is a lot of variables and angles that need to come though. Keep it to maybe $5 or $10 to win and nothing more than that. Maybe a $.50 Trifecta over the top-3 betting choices.

How will it all shake out? It is almost impossible to tell but based on the data I provided in the contenders analysis and the preceding paragraphs, I present some logical betting options based on your favorite cup of tea or betting style. How do you bet a horse race?? What type of bankroll are you playing with? Is it about having a good time and being a part of the spectacle? Or is it about finding a way to make money? No matter what you want or the size of your bankroll there are different ways you can approach the race.

Below are my examples of how to play the 2016 Cotillion based on bankroll. This is a first look at the field in an attempt to maximize a “return” for the 2016 Cotillion Stakes Predictions, Picks, Live Longshot, Analysis

$12 investment
$3 WP4
$.50 Trifecta4,5 with 1,2,4,5
$20 investment
$2 WP4
$.50 Trifecta4,5 with 1,2,4,5
Single Songbird in Pick 3 with $10
$50 investment
$3 WP4
$.50 Trifecta (x2)4,5 with 1,2,4,5
Single Songbird in Pick 4 with $32

Tampa Bay Downs Information, Weather Forecast, Directions

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(Tampa Bay Downs FB Page)

Tampa Bay Downs is the premier west coast of Florida horse racing destination. Located in beautiful Tampa Florida, the facilities are more than capable and serve purposes above and beyond racing to ensure any person can find something to do at the location. The premier race at Tampa Bay Downs is the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby. Do not miss the chance to visit if you find yourself in Florida.

Tampa Bay Downs Information

11225 Race Track Rd

Tampa FL 33626

 

Main Course: 1 Mile

Turf Course: 7 Furlongs w/ ÂĽ Mile Chute

Tampa Bay Downs Information – Weather



Tampa Bay Downs Information – Map and Directions