Here we go, the time is here and there is a $16 Million purse at stake. The second running of the Pegasus World Cup is this Saturday from Gulfstream Park in Hallandale, Florida. This race is the brainchild of The Stronach Group, which owns Gulfstream. The field is capped at 12 horses and to no surprise, we have a full field. With a field that size and a purse this big, it is no wonder the internet will be filled with Pegasus World Cup predictions.
The Pegasus World Cup is uniquely constructed. A portion of its funding comes from Thoroughbred owners, who pay $1 million for the rights to one of the available slots in the race. The owners are then allowed to enter a horse or sell their position to another owner. Leasing is also an option. That type of configuration has allowed what we are seeing this year. The top-5 runners in this past Breeders Cup Classic are in this field for the Pegasus World Cup. If that isn’t enough for you, six is the magic number. Six Grade 1 winners in this field. When making Pegasus World Cup predictions those items will factor above and beyond just Gun Runner.
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Race: Pegasus World Cup (G1)
Location: Gulfstream Park
Distance: Mile and one eighth
Date: Saturday, January 27 2018
Post Time: 5:35 PM EST
The Backstory – Over the years I have continued to modify how I break down each race based on input from the readers (Thank for your reading and leaving feedback over the years). That could be from any number of sites I have created content for including Sports Unbiased. However, when I started Longshot Horse Racing, I wanted to apply all I heard and get away from very granular and in-depth analysis of each horse in the field. Many claimed the reading was dry and over the top. Now you will find data about each horse, how it should shake out, and we will have a little fun doing it. If you want just the raw numbers then Brisnet, Equibase, or even the Daily Racing Form are right up your alley (and mine since I love them all) but if you want the breakdown with a twist then read on and enjoy.
Pegasus World Cup Predictions – Post Positions and Odds
|7||30-1||Fear the Cowboy|
|9||20-1||Toast of New York|
|11||25-1||Seeking the Soul|
Pegasus World Cup Predictions – Contenders Analysis
SINGING BULLET – When talking about the depth of this field Singing Bullet is an exception. Obviously, anything can happen in horse racing but this would be a relative shocker, to say the least. At Churchill there was five one-turn mile starts at the Allowance level that yielded a whopping one score. I do like the bloodlines but asking for two-turns against Gun Runner and others is really more of an “I ran my horse in the Pegasus World Cup” than anything else.
WEST COAST – Arrogate anyone? Not quite to that level but the flow was fairly consistent. He was unraced until his three years old campaign which was a late start. Baffert just knows what to do with a horse. The summer and fall were good to West Coast with impressive scores in the Grade 1 Travers Stakes and Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby. The Classic saw him finish third behind two in here, Gun Runner and Collected. He is not a front-runner and would rather run in the stretch so that makes things interesting considering Gun Runner and Collected will likely be 1-2 at the turn for home.
STELLAR WIND – Lots of things to like here folks. Also, some to make you cringe a bit. She is out of Curlin and will be the first female to step into the Pegasus ring with the boys (albeit only year two). Do you remember how dominant she was a champion 3-year-old in 2015? I know I still do. The downside is at the Breeders Cup Distaff she looked like she did not want to be a part of the race. Is she done? It is hard to say but she was sold and moved to the barn of Chad Brown, who is notoriously good with horses that come to him. Factor in Rosario in the mount and things could get interesting. If anyone can di that old form out of her it is Chad Brown. A must in any exotic play.
SHARP AZTECA – Enters the race as a winner of three of his last four starts all in Graded Stakes company. But did come up short in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. He rebounded with an insanely good performance as the runaway winner of the Cigar Mile Handicap. Interesting to note that Castellano has left the mount to stay on West Coast in here. Luckily he picks up Irad Ortiz, who is no slouch. He has three wins at Gulfstream to his name but has only scored only in a two-turn race. Can he go a mile and an eighth or is that just too far. We will see on Saturday.
COLLECTED – Another one in this field that really wants the lead. Comes in off a disappointing third-place finish in the San Antonio after a bizarre run. Prior to that race, Collected was having an incredible year. At one point there was a four-race win streak that included Grade 1 Pacific Classic. Two back, he ran a very solid runner-up in the Breeders Cup Classic. He is very talented and carries a Hall of Fame jockey on his back. Expect him to go, but can he last?
GUNNEVERA – It is no secret to readers that I have pushed Gunnevera in the past. I still believe this horse has a ton of talent and he might like the senior circuit. Last time out he finished a middling fifth in the Breeders Cup Classic. He has not scored in a Graded Stakes race since the Fountain of Youth almost a year ago. He has been training here at Gulfstream and does really like the surface. His career line here is seven starts with a 3-2-1 line. He will be flying late but this is one heck of a group to run into. Then again, we have seen something like this in the past. Hmm…
FEAR THE COWBOY – My goal in every breakdown is provide a reason or way that the horse could win. Now I know, and so do you, that always anything can and has happened in horse racing. That being said, not this one and not ever. A six-year-old with two career Grade 3 wins in the Pegasus? Not now, not ever!
WAR STORY – Okay, here we go again. War Story is well traveled and not shy about constantly taking on the best horses in the world. At six he keeps coming back for more. One thing that can always be said about War Story is that he is a Graded Stakes competitor. The challenge is that wins are few and far between. He comes in off a run of respectable fourth-place finishes but as always, that is his ceiling. He could help out the exotic prices.
TOAST OF NEW YORK – Is the name ringing a bell and you are having a hard time placing it? If you are a handicapper you should remember him. He finished second to Bayern in the 2014 Breeders Cup Classic. He also spared with Shared Belief. But alas, he retired to the lovely life as a stud but at seven-years-old, he has returned. He enters the Pegasus World Cup with only one race since returning from retirement, a solid condition level score at a mile and a quarter. He has a ton of talent but this might be asking the farm. Detton is an incredible rider and Europeans can work magic with their horses but this is beyond magic. With that said, I do actually think there is a chance here because the talent lies within.
GUN RUNNER – Elephant meet room. Here lies the monster that everyone is trying to beat and that will be a tall test. The Breeders Cup Classic winner and soon to be crowned 2017 Horse of the Year is entering the Pegasus World Cup in incredible form. Anyone from this field that has entered the gate with him has finished behind him. The distance at the Pegasus is a mile and an eighth which is arguably his best distance. If you are looking for an angle, he has never raced at Gulfstream Park. But, that has happened at many of the 10 other tracks he raced at and most of them ended in a win. Hope for rain or finally a bad start.
SEEKING THE SOUL – You can look at his last race in one of two ways. You could say that a five-year-old that focuses his success in the Allowance class just got lucky and had the race of his life when scoring last out in the Grade 1 Clark Handicap for his first stakes win or you can look at this a different way. You could argue he is a late bloomer. Why? Look back at the tail end of 2017 and you see that Seeking post a new career best Speed Figure in each of his final three starts. In that stretch he set a new one and a sixteenth mile track record at Keenland. His best kick is late and he will be coming. Depending on what you believe, you just might get a very nice price.
GREAT EXPECTATIONS – While I think this spot might be asking too much of him, he runs better than his 30-1 morning line implies. He does bring two Grade 2 scores into the race including a victory over Collected in the San Antonio. However, the race could be argued as a weird one for Collected and less on Great Expectations. He will be asked to stretch out even longer in his second try around two turns and all that just seems like too much to handle.
Pegasus World Cup Predictions Predictions – Live Longshot
(9) Toast of New York
Pegasus World Cup Predictions – Betting Strategy
As I have eluded to in this piece, I am looking for value in a race that could easily be all chalk. How will it all shake out? It is almost impossible to tell but based on the data I provided in the contenders analysis and the preceding paragraphs, I present some logical betting options based on your favorite cup of tea or betting style. How do you bet a horse race?? What type of bankroll are you playing with? Is it about having a good time and being a part of the spectacle? Or is it about finding a way to make money? No matter what you want or the size of your bankroll there are different ways you can approach 2018 Pegasus World Cup predictions and betting strategies.
If you are looking for other betting combinations and have a hard calculating bet costs Longshot Horse Racing has your back. We developed a free simple to use wagering calculator optimized for use outdoors in daylight and at the track. Download the product from the Google Play Store Here. Do not forget to rate the application.
|Gun Runner Can't Lose Theory|
|$1 Trifecta||10 with 6,9,11|
|$.10 Superfecta||10 with 2,3,6,9,11|
|$1 Trifecta||10 with 6,9,11|
|$.10 Superfecta||10 with 2,3,6,9,11|
|Gotta Have A Price|
|$1 Exacta Box||9 with 10 with 11|
|$.50 Trifecta Box||9 with 10 with 11|
|$4 Win / Place||9|
|$1 Exacta Box||6 with 9 with 10 with 11|
|$1 Trifecta||9 with 2,6,10,11|
|$1 Trifecta||6 with 2,9,10,11|
There you have our 2018 Pegasus World Cup predictions. Do you agree or are there other 2018 Pegasus World Cup predictions that we did not include? Here at Longshot Horse Racing we are all for readers commenting but can we make a suggestion? Why don’t you write your own piece? It can be 3000 words or even 300. Here we encourage different opinions and want to give you a chance to build your brand. Join us and let your voice be heard. Just check out the Write With Us link to get started. Don’t worry its easy and remember you can build you brand by writing with us and not for us. That is the big difference. It is all about you in your words.